Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for home = ~85.5% (1.17) which is not supported by the provided player profiles
• • Our fair estimate for the home win is ~62% → fair odds ~1.613, well above the current 1.17

Pros

• + If our conservative true probability is too low, the market still remains extremely short on the favorite
• + Clear, simple mismatch between implied and estimated probabilities simplifies the EV assessment

Cons

• - Research is limited and both players' profiles are nearly identical, increasing estimation uncertainty
• - If there are unreported factors (injury to away player, extreme home advantage), our assessment could be wrong

Details

We view the posted market (Leyre Romero Gormaz 1.17 vs Charo Esquiva Banuls 5.00) as heavily skewed toward the home player relative to what the available data supports. The research shows both players with essentially identical professional profiles and results (career span, overall 10-21 records, similar recent losses), no clear injury information, and no head-to-head or dominant surface differential provided. Given near-parity in form and experience, we estimate a modest home edge but nowhere near the implied bookmaker probability of ~85.5% (1/1.17). Using a conservative true win probability for the home player of 62%, the fair odds should be about 1.613. At the current market price of 1.17 the expected value is strongly negative (EV = 0.62 * 1.17 - 1 ≈ -0.275), so there is no value to back the favorite. Conversely, the away price (5.00, implied 20%) might look attractive only if we believed the away chance is ≥25% — the research does not support upgrading the away player's win probability to that level given identical records and no additional positive indicators. Therefore we recommend no bet because neither side offers positive EV versus our estimates.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records and recent results in the provided data
• • No injury, surface advantage, or H2H evidence in the research to justify an 85% market probability
• • Book market implies a far larger gap than the research supports, creating a negative EV on the favorite