Highlights

• • Market implies heavy favoritism for the home player despite symmetric research data
• • At our 50% estimate the away odds of 5.8 yield a very large positive EV

Pros

• + Large theoretical edge vs current public price
• + Neutral surface profiles and lack of injury data support re-evaluation of the market probability

Cons

• - Limited dataset and no direct H2H or ranking details supplied — hidden factors could justify market prices
• - Longshot outcomes are high-variance; actual match-level variance can wipe out expected edge on a single wager

Details

The market prices Leyre Romero Gormaz at 1.14 (≈87.7% implied) and Charo Esquiva Banuls at 5.8 (≈17.2% implied). Our research shows both players with effectively identical career spans, identical overall records (10-21) and similar surface experience; there is no injury or form information that justifies a >70-point gap in win probability. Given the lack of evidence for a heavy favourite and the symmetric profiles, we assign roughly equal chances. At a conservative 50% true win probability for Charo, the quoted 5.8 offers large positive expectancy (EV = 0.5*5.8 - 1 = 1.9 per unit). Consequently the away price appears strongly mispriced and represents value.

Key factors

• • Both players show effectively identical career records and recent results in the supplied data
• • No injury, fatigue, head-to-head or surface advantage evidence provided to justify market skew
• • Market implies a very low chance for the away player (≈17%), which conflicts with available profile parity