Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Angela Fita Boluda
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value on either side — the market overprices the home player relative to our conservative ~51.5% true win estimate, producing a large negative expected value at 1.408.
Highlights
- • Market implies ~71% for home; our estimate is ~51.5%
- • Required fair odds for home would be ≈1.942; current 1.408 offers no value
Pros
- + We applied conservative, data-driven probability given identical profiles
- + Clear numerical gap between market price and our estimated fair odds
Cons
- - Available research is limited and duplicated; there may be unreported context (H2H, recent injuries)
- - Tennis matches can be swingy; small edges can be erased by variance
Details
We estimate these two players to be essentially evenly matched based on the provided profiles: identical career spans, matching 10-21 records, and similar surface history with no clear form or injury edge in the research. The market prices the home player (Leyre Romero Gormaz) at ~71.0% implied probability (1.408), which materially overstates any edge supported by the data. Using a conservative true win probability of 51.5% for the home player, the required fair odds would be ~1.942. At the current quoted price (1.408) the bet has a large negative expectation, so no value exists and we do not recommend taking the market on either side.
Key factors
- • Both players show nearly identical career records and recent results in the provided data
- • No clear surface, form, injury, or H2H advantage is present in the research
- • Market-implied probability (≈71% for home) substantially exceeds our realistic estimate (~51.5%)