Highlights

• • Book implied away probability ~23.6% vs our estimate 45%
• • Break-even odds for our estimate are 2.222; current price 4.23 is well above that

Pros

• + Large positive expected value at current market odds
• + Both players' similar records suggest market overreaction or mispricing

Cons

• - Research contains limited distinct indicators (no H2H, rankings, or injury data), increasing uncertainty
• - High variance inherent in single-match tennis betting — outcomes can be volatile

Details

We identify value on Katarina Zavatska (away). The market prices Leyre Romero Gormaz at 1.198 (implied ~83.5%) and Zavatska at 4.23 (implied ~23.6%), which is inconsistent with the available player data: both players show virtually identical career records (10-21) and similar surface experience, with no clear form or injury advantage for the home player. Given parity in the dataset, a fair model-based estimate should be much closer to even than the market implies. We conservatively estimate Zavatska's true win probability at 45%; at the current decimal price of 4.23 that produces a large positive edge (EV = 0.45 * 4.23 - 1 = 0.9035). The market therefore appears to be overstating the home advantage or mispricing this matchup, and the away price offers significant value relative to our estimated probability. We note uncertainty due to sparse distinct performance signals and lack of head-to-head or injury detail, so we remain conservative in our probability but still find clear value at available odds.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and surface profiles
• • Bookmaker prices imply a large favorite (home) which is not supported by available form data
• • Limited additional information (H2H, injuries) increases estimation uncertainty but does not justify the heavy market skew