Highlights

• • Rivera priced at implied 66.6% despite career win rate near 29%
• • Perez’s price 2.44 > fair threshold (~2.381) based on our 42% win estimate

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current odds (≈2.5% ROI)
• + Perez has recent clay match experience including Madrid which may confer readiness

Cons

• - Both players are in poor form overall, increasing variance
• - EV is small — outcome remains uncertain and match-level noise is high

Details

We find value on Brandon Perez (away). The market prices Leyton Rivera at 1.503 (implied win prob ~66.6%), which is far higher than either player's career winning rates or recent form suggest. Rivera is 9-22 (31 matches) while Perez is 11-26 (37 matches) — nearly identical career win rates (~29-30%), so a two-thirds probability for Rivera is not supported by the available data. Perez has recent clay activity (including a match in Madrid) and service stats in some recent matches that indicate better hold potential than Rivera’s recent showing, where Rivera recorded very poor 1st-serve performance in recent matches. Given these factors, we estimate Perez’s true win probability at 42%. At the offered away price of 2.44 this yields a small positive expected value (EV = 0.42 * 2.44 - 1 ≈ 0.025), so we recommend taking the away underdog at current widely-available odds.

Key factors

• • Market heavily favors Rivera (1.503) despite very similar career records
• • Both players have limited win rates on tour (~29-30%), so Rivera’s implied 66% is inflated
• • Perez has recent clay match activity (including Madrid) and stronger recent serve metrics versus Rivera’s poor 1st-serve figures