Highlights

• • Market heavily favors Leyton Rivera (1.01) but implied probability slightly exceeds our conservative true probability
• • Underdog odds are profitable only if true upset chance is much higher than our conservative estimate

Pros

• + Market acknowledges an overwhelming favorite, which is consistent with conservative expectations
• + If additional reliable information surfaces indicating an underpriced upset probability, the long price could become attractive

Cons

• - Current favorite price (1.01) does not clear our required fair price (1.015) — small negative EV
• - No verifiable data to justify moving our conservative probability materially in favor of either side

Details

Market prices show an overwhelming favorite (Leyton Rivera 1.01) and a long underdog (Jim Hendrikx 16.0). With no independent information available on surface, form, injuries, or head-to-head, we apply a conservative assessment. The market-implied win probability for the home player is ~99.01% (1/1.01). We estimate a slightly lower true probability of 98.5% to allow for upset risk and the bookmaker margin. At that estimate the fair decimal price is 1.015; the offered 1.01 does not clear our required threshold. Calculated EV for backing the favorite at 1.01 is negative (approx -0.005 per unit). The away side at 16.0 would require an estimated true win probability of ~6.25% to break even; our conservative estimate for the underdog is ~1.5%, so that side is deeply negative EV as well. Given both sides show negative expected value at the quoted prices, we do not recommend a wager.

Key factors

• • Extreme market favoritism: home priced at 1.01 implies ~99.01% win chance
• • No independent data on surface, form, injuries or H2H — we apply conservative probability adjustments
• • Small margin between our fair price (1.015) and market price (1.01) makes positive EV unavailable