Liam Draxl vs Daniel Cukierman

Highlights

• • Implied market probability at 1.18 is ~84.7%; our estimate is 88.0%
• • Positive expected value albeit modest (≈3.8% ROI)

Pros

• + Clear superiority in career record and match experience
• + Recent appearances at higher-level hard-court events suggest readiness

Cons

• - Edge is small — outcome variance in a single match can erase the gain
• - Limited head-to-head data and some uncertainty in short-term form

Details

We see clear value on Liam Draxl at 1.18. The market-implied probability at 1.18 is ~84.7%, while our assessment places Draxl at roughly 88.0% to win. Our view is driven by a large gap in career performance and match volume (Draxl 68-26 career vs Cukierman 5-14), recent participation at higher-level hard-court events for Draxl, and Cukierman's limited wins and poor recent form. There is no research evidence of injury concerns for Draxl and the surface experience is in Draxl's favor. The margin over the market is small (about 3.3 percentage points) but sufficient to produce a positive expected value at the quoted price (EV ≈ 0.0384 per unit at 1.18). We acknowledge some uncertainty from limited head-to-head data and the natural variance of tennis, so the edge is modest but real.

Key factors

• • Large career/record gap: Draxl 68-26 vs Cukierman 5-14
• • Recent higher-level hard-court appearances for Draxl vs Cukierman's poor recent form
• • No reported injuries and greater match experience reduces variance