Highlights

• • Home priced at 1.078 implies ~92.7% win chance
• • Conservative estimated win chance of 90% produces a small negative ROI (-2.98%)

Pros

• + If our conservative estimate is too low and actual win probability exceeds ~93%, value would appear
• + Market price implies a dominant favourite, which is plausible in mismatches

Cons

• - No research data available to justify taking the extreme market price at face value
• - Current odds are too short to offer a positive expected value under conservative assumptions

Details

The market prices Liam Gavrielides as an overwhelming favorite at 1.078 (implied ~92.7%). We have no external form, injury, surface or H2H data and must be conservative. Assigning a conservative true win probability for Gavrielides of 90% (0.90) yields a negative expected value at the current price (EV = 0.90 * 1.078 - 1 = -0.0298). To be profitable, we would need decimal odds >= 1.111 (1 / 0.90). Given the absence of corroborating research and the bookmaker’s extreme price, we do not find positive value and therefore recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market implies an extremely high probability for the home favorite (≈92.7%)
• • No supplemental data on recent form, injuries, surface or H2H to justify the market extremity
• • Conservative estimated true probability (90%) is below the implied market probability, producing negative EV