Liam Draxl vs Orel Kimhi

Highlights

• • Market implies ~92.6% for Draxl; we estimate ~95%
• • No injury concerns noted in the provided research; surface and experience favor Draxl

Pros

• + Clear experience and win-rate advantage
• + Low-variance, high-probability favorite reduces downside volatility

Cons

• - Edge is small — limited upside relative to stake
• - Heavy favorite outcomes can still be upset; any overlooked form/injury info would erode value

Details

We find small but real value on Liam Draxl at 1.08. The market implies ~92.6% probability (1/1.08) but Draxl's much larger match sample (68-26) and experience at higher-level hard-court events vs Orel Kimhi's limited 13-12 record suggest a true win probability materially above the market price. Both players are hard-court players in the provided research, and there are no injury flags in the supplied data. Given the quality and depth advantage, we estimate Draxl's win probability at 95%, producing a positive expected value versus the current 1.08 price.

Key factors

• • Liam Draxl's larger sample size and stronger overall record (68-26) versus Orel Kimhi (13-12)
• • Both players' matches in the research were on hard courts; Draxl has exposure at higher-level hard events
• • Market-implied probability (≈92.6%) is slightly below our estimated true probability (95%), creating a small edge