Highlights

• • Normalized fair probability for home ≈ 60.7% (fair decimal ≈ 1.649)
• • Current home price 1.571 yields negative EV (~-4.7%)

Pros

• + Market consensus identifies Lian Tran as the stronger pick
• + Available data is balanced (similar records), reducing risk of overlooked heavy favorite

Cons

• - Current favorite price (1.571) is shorter than our fair price (1.649) — no value
• - Research lacks injury, H2H, or surface-advantage info that could justify deviating from the normalized estimate

Details

We estimate the fair chance for Lian Tran (home) by normalizing bookmaker-implied probabilities to remove the market overround. Market decimals imply ~63.7% for home and ~41.3% for away (sum ~104.97%). Normalizing yields an estimated true probability for the home win of ~60.7% (decimal fair price ~1.649). At the current offered home price of 1.571 the expected value is negative (EV ≈ -0.047), so there is no value on the favorite. The research shows both players with nearly identical career records and recent form, no clear surface or injury edge present, and no H2H or other differentiating data to justify assigning a materially higher probability than the normalized market estimate. Therefore we do not recommend a side at current prices.

Key factors

• • Bookmaker-implied probabilities normalized to remove ~4.97% overround
• • Both players show nearly identical career records and recent form in provided data
• • No injury, H2H, or surface-specific advantage available in the research