Lilli Tagger vs Sada Nahimana

Highlights

• • Bookmaker implies only ~28% for the away player, but parity in profiles supports a much higher true probability
• • Min fair odds for our estimate are ~2.273 — current 3.57 is well above that

Pros

• + Large margin between market odds and our conservative probability estimate yields strong EV
• + No injury or surface information in the research to justify the heavy home favorite

Cons

• - Limited and noisy dataset: both player profiles are sparse and nearly identical, increasing uncertainty
• - Tournament-specific factors (e.g., local support, seeding) are not present in the research and could alter true probabilities

Details

We find clear value on the away side, Sada Nahimana. The market prices Lilli Tagger as a heavy favorite at 1.258 (implied ~79.5%), which is inconsistent with the research: both players have nearly identical recent records (around 10-21 / 10-22), similar surfaces played and no injury or H2H evidence to justify such a large gap. Given parity in form and surface history, we estimate Nahimana's true win probability materially higher than the market-implied ~28.0% for 3.57. Conservatively estimating Nahimana at 44% (reflecting near-equal ability with a slight edge to Tagger only), the current away price of 3.57 yields a strong positive expected value. Calculation: EV = 0.44 * 3.57 - 1 = 0.5708 (57.1% ROI on a unit stake). The min fair odds for that 44% estimate are 2.273; the market quote of 3.57 comfortably exceeds that, indicating value. We avoid the home side because the 1.258 price implies an implausibly high 79.5% win probability not supported by the comparable career records and lack of additional advantage indicators.

Key factors

• • Nearly identical career records and recent form between the two players
• • No injuries, surface advantage or H2H evidence in the provided research to justify a heavy favorite
• • Market-implied probability for home (79.5%) appears overstated relative to available data, inflating the away odds