Highlights

• • Parity between players in career stats and surfaces
• • Home price 2.15 exceeds our min required odds (2.020) for value

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current odds (EV ≈ 6.4%)
• + Simple, defensible model based on parity with a small home-edge

Cons

• - Very limited differentiating data and no H2H to increase confidence
• - Recent form information in the research is sparse and ambiguous

Details

We see almost complete parity in the research: both players show identical career spans, overall win-loss records and broad surface experience, and there is no H2H data to differentiate them. Given that parity and the home designation for Lilli Tagger, we assign a small edge to the home player and estimate her true win probability at 49.5%. At the current decimal price of 2.15 for Lilli, that probability produces positive expected value (EV = 0.495 * 2.15 - 1 = 0.06425). The market currently prices the away player as the favorite (implied ~60.1%), which appears slightly overstated versus the available data; therefore we recommend backing the home player only because the current price offers value relative to our probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Near-identical career records and surface experience — little separation in ability
• • Home designation for Lilli Tagger gives a small edge in a balanced matchup
• • Market favors the away player; current home price (2.15) offers value versus our probability