Lilli Tagger vs Lisa Pigato
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see a small value on Lisa Pigato at 2.67 because the market appears to overprice Lilli Tagger given similar records and no clear form or surface advantage.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability for Tagger (69.3%) looks high relative to available data
- • Pigato at 2.67 slightly exceeds our required threshold (2.632) for positive EV
Pros
- + Price (2.67) offers a small positive expected return based on our probability model
- + Both players' comparable records reduce the justification for a large favorite
Cons
- - Edge is thin (≈1.5% ROI) and sensitive to small changes in true probability
- - Research is limited; hidden factors (injury, head-to-head, local conditions) could invalidate the estimate
Details
We believe the market overstates Lilli Tagger's advantage (implied 69.3% from 1.444) despite near-identical profile and recent form for both players. Both Tagger and Pigato show the same 10-21 record and similar surface histories with limited form evidence to support such a large gap; we estimate the true match probability closer to 62% Tagger / 38% Pigato. At those odds the away price (2.67, implied 37.45%) offers small positive edge: using our estimated win probability for Pigato (0.38) the expected value is +0.015 per unit (EV = 0.38 * 2.67 - 1). We therefore recommend a back of Lisa Pigato only because current widely-available pricing (2.67) is above our minimum required decimal odds (2.632) for a profitable wager given our probability estimate. This is a thin edge and dependent on the assumption that there is no material hidden information (injury, travel, local conditions) favoring Tagger.
Key factors
- • Both players have nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar surface experience
- • Market implies a much larger edge to the home favorite than the available performance data supports
- • Limited recent form for both players; small informational edge could flip value quickly