Highlights

• • Gjorcheska's extensive experience and better career record favor her.
• • Current home price implies a higher probability than our estimate, creating negative EV.

Pros

• + Strong experience differential in favor of the home player
• + Home player has a materially better career win rate

Cons

• - Market price is already short, leaving little to no margin for error
• - Small-sample uncertainty around the away player's true level could swing probabilities

Details

We compare the bookmaker-implied probability (home 1.327 = 75.4%) to our estimate of Lina Gjorcheska's true win chance. Gjorcheska has a large experience advantage (1066 matches vs 31) and a stronger career win-rate (≈52.5% vs 32.3%), and both players have clay/hard experience; this leads us to view Gjorcheska as the clear favorite. However, the market price implies a ~75% win probability which is higher than our conservative true probability estimate (72%). At our estimate the required fair decimal price is ≈1.389; the offered 1.327 produces negative EV. Therefore there is no positive-value bet at the quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Large experience gap: 1066 career matches vs 31
• • Career win-rate advantage for the home player (≈52.5% vs 32.3%)
• • Market-implied probability (75.4%) exceeds our conservative true estimate (72%)