Lina Gjorcheska vs Laura Hietaranta
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Given near-identical records and no clear edge for the home player, the away price 2.25 looks undervalued versus our 50% win estimate, producing ~12.5% ROI.
Highlights
- • Players' records and recent form are effectively level
- • Away odds (2.25) exceed the fair-price threshold (2.00) implied by a 50% estimate
Pros
- + Positive expected value at current widely-available price (EV ≈ +12.5%)
- + Decision rests on transparent, conservative 50/50 assessment
Cons
- - Small and limited data set; research shows few meaningful differentiators
- - Market may reflect inside information (seeding, local factors) not present in provided data
Details
We find value on Laura Hietaranta (away) because the available player data shows nearly identical career records (both 10-21) and matching recent results, with no clear surface or injury advantage for Lina Gjorcheska. The market currently prices Lina at 1.61 (implied ~62.1%) and Laura at 2.25 (implied ~44.4%). Given the symmetric profiles and lack of evidence favoring the home player, we estimate a fair win probability near 50% for each player. That makes the 2.25 quote for Laura offer positive expected value (0.50 * 2.25 - 1 = +0.125). The home price looks overstated versus available form data, creating a mispriced away selection.
Key factors
- • Profiles show near-identical career records and recent match outcomes
- • Both players have experience on clay and hard; no clear surface edge
- • Market favors home strongly (1.61) despite symmetric evidence, creating value on away at 2.25