Lina Gjorcheska vs Lilli Tagger

Highlights

• • Market overprices the away player relative to provided data
• • Home at 2.10 offers a small positive expected value vs our 50% estimate

Pros

• + Positive EV at available market price (0.05 ROI on a 1-unit stake)
• + Decision rests on conservative, symmetric data — less likely to be optimistic bias

Cons

• - Edge is small and sensitive to any unreported info (injuries, surface preference, H2H)
• - Both players have weak recent form (10-21 records), increasing variance and risk

Details

Both players' available profiles show near-identical records and recent results, with no clear form or matchup edge to justify the market preferring the away player. The market decimals imply probabilities of ~47.6% for the home (2.10) and ~60.0% for the away (1.667). Given symmetric career records (10-21) and equivalent recent match data in the research, we estimate the true win probability for Lina Gjorcheska (home) is about 50.0%, higher than the market-implied 47.6%. At the quoted 2.10, this yields a small positive EV (0.05 per 1-unit stake). The value comes from the market overstating the away player despite no objective advantage in the provided data. We remain cautious because the dataset is limited and both players show weak recent form, so the edge is small and sensitive to any unreported factors.

Key factors

• • Both players show effectively identical records and recent-match summaries in the provided research
• • Market-implied probability favors the away player (1.667 => ~60%) despite no documented advantage
• • Home price 2.10 implies ~47.6% — below our conservative 50% estimate, creating a small positive edge