Highlights

• • Players have near-identical records and recent form in the supplied data
• • Current price (4.25) implies ~23.5% but we estimate ~35%, creating value

Pros

• + Large gap between implied probability and our conservative estimate yields strong EV
• + No adverse injury information or obvious form advantage for the favorite in the research

Cons

• - Limited data and no head-to-head or ranking detail in the provided sources increase uncertainty
• - Market may be pricing unseen factors not in the research (e.g., ranking, matchup nuances), so risk of adverse surprise

Details

We observe from the provided profiles that Lina Soussi and Angelica Sara share nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar recent form on hard and clay, with no injury notes or head-to-head data in the research. The market prices Angelica Sara very short at 1.20 (implied ~83.3%) and Lina Soussi long at 4.25 (implied ~23.5%). Given the clear parity in the available data, we believe the market is overestimating the favorite and underpricing Lina Soussi. Conservatively estimating Lina's true win probability at 35% (reflecting near-parity but allowing for bookmaker margin and some market preference for Sara), the 4.25 price offers positive expected value. Calculation: EV = 0.35 * 4.25 - 1 = 0.4875 (48.75% ROI). The minimum fair decimal odds for this probability is 1 / 0.35 = 2.857. Because the current quote (4.25) exceeds that threshold, we recommend the Lina Soussi moneyline as a value play while acknowledging limited data and higher variance.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical career records (10-21) and similar surfaces played
• • Recent match lists show comparable recent losses and no injury flags in research
• • Market heavily favors the away player, creating a large pricing gap that implies value if parity holds