Highlights

• • Market-implied probability ~85.0%; our estimate 87.0%
• • Small but clear positive expected value at current odds

Pros

• + Significant experience and larger career sample supporting probability edge
• + Current odds exceed our required minimum for positive EV

Cons

• - Edge is modest (EV ~2.3%) — a small-margin play with limited upside
• - Limited specific match-level data (fitness, H2H) increases uncertainty

Details

We see clear value backing Lina Gjorcheska at the listed price. The market's decimal price of 1.176 implies a win probability of ~85.0%, but our assessment—based on a large professional sample (559-507 career record, extensive experience across surfaces) versus Maria Sara Popa's limited sample (31 matches, 10-21 record) and relative inexperience—puts Lina's true chance higher. Conservatively we estimate Lina's win probability at 87.0%; at that probability the fair price is ~1.149, so the offered 1.176 provides a small positive edge. There are no reported injuries or surface mismatches in the provided research to materially reduce Lina's edge.

Key factors

• • Large experience gap: Lina has 1066 career matches vs Popa's 31
• • Head-to-head absent but career win-rate and experience favor Lina
• • Current market price implies ~85.0% — we estimate ~87.0%, creating positive EV