Highlights

• • Korneeva's far greater match experience and better career win rate
• • Current market odds (1.671) imply slightly less probability than we estimate

Pros

• + Positive expected value at the quoted price
• + Strong supporting evidence from career volume and win-rate differential

Cons

• - Limited match-by-match form detail in the provided research (both have recent losses)
• - Small edge — outcome variance in a single match can erase the ROI

Details

We see a clear experience and performance gap in the provided profiles: Alina Korneeva has ~1066 career matches with a positive win-loss record, while Linda Fruhvirtova shows only 31 matches with a 10-21 record. Both players have recent losses on tour, but Korneeva's much larger sample, broader surface exposure (including clay), and higher career win rate indicate she is the stronger pick. The market prices Korneeva at 1.671 (implied ~59.9%). Based on the evidence provided, we estimate Korneeva's true win probability at 62.0%, which produces a positive expected value versus the current decimal price (EV = 0.036 or 3.6% ROI). Given the limited injury/fitness information in the research, our edge rests on head-to-head experience, overall match volume and historical win-rate differential, and surface versatility.

Key factors

• • Large experience gap: Korneeva ~1066 matches vs Fruhvirtova ~31 matches
• • Better career win-loss profile for Korneeva (559-507 vs 10-21)
• • Both players have recent losses, but Korneeva's larger sample implies greater consistency
• • Surface coverage: Korneeva listed on multiple surfaces including clay, indicating adaptability
• • Market-implied probability (59.9%) is below our estimated true probability (62.0%)