Highlights

• • Market implies 36.2% for Tan; our estimate is ~48%
• • Positive EV of ~0.325 (32.5% ROI) at decimal 2.76

Pros

• + Clear pricing mismatch between nearly-equal players
• + High upside EV at widely-available price (2.76)

Cons

• - Player profiles and recent form sample size are small and similar, increasing uncertainty
• - No detailed injury/H2H data in research to further validate the edge

Details

The market strongly favors Linda Fruhvirtova at 1.42 (implied ~70.4%) while Harmony Tan is at 2.76 (implied ~36.2%). The available profiles show nearly identical records, surfaces played (clay/hard) and recent results, so there is no clear performance edge that justifies a ~70% market probability for Fruhvirtova. We estimate the matchup to be close with a small edge to the home player (approx. 52% to 48%); that implies Harmony Tan's true win probability is ~48%, which is substantially higher than the market-implied 36.2% and creates positive expected value at the available 2.76 price. Using odds 2.76 for the away side yields EV = 0.48*2.76 - 1 = +0.3248 (32.5% ROI). We therefore recommend the away side as a value play based on the mismatch between near-identical recent form/records and the market pricing.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and surfaces played (clay, hard)
• • Market prices considerably favor the home player despite similar form, creating a pricing discrepancy
• • Recent results for both players show limited wins and no clear momentum advantage