Highlights

• • Both players show similar records and recent results in the provided research
• • Required fair odds (~1.818) are far above the current market price (1.073)

Pros

• + Clear decision: current market price is so short that it is unlikely to be +EV
• + Research contains consistent, comparable snapshots of both players (reducing unknown-variance)

Cons

• - Limited data: research lacks ranking details, head-to-head, and clear surface context
• - High uncertainty about true matchup dynamics means our probability estimate has notable variance

Details

We find no value at the listed prices. The available research shows virtually identical career records and recent form for both players, with no clear surface or injury advantage for either side. The market moneyline (Home 1.073 -> implied 93.3%) is extremely short and not supported by the data in the research; we estimate a realistic win probability for the home player in the range of ~55% based on parity of records and lack of decisive edges. At our estimate (p = 0.55) the expected return at the quoted home price (1.073) is negative (EV = 0.55 * 1.073 - 1 = -0.41), so the price offers no value. To justify a bet at our probability the market would need to offer at least ~1.818 decimal, far above the current 1.073.

Key factors

• • Research shows nearly identical career records and recent form for both players
• • No clear surface, injury, or H2H advantage is evident from the provided data
• • Market price for home is extremely short (implied ~93%), which is not supported by the research