Highlights

• • Home favorite (Zhao) supported by superior activity and hard-court experience
• • Current market price is slightly juiced/too short versus our assessed probability

Pros

• + Zhao has more matches and better win sample on hard surfaces
• + Hou's limited recent match-play and 1-4 record argue against a strong upset probability

Cons

• - Zhao's overall record is only marginally positive (5-6) and recent results are mixed
• - Small sample sizes and no H2H data increase uncertainty around our probability estimate

Details

We estimate Lingxi Zhao is the clear favorite based on greater match activity (11 matches vs 5) and a slightly stronger record on hard courts, but the listed price of 1.275 is too short to represent value. Our read of the form: Zhao is inconsistent (5-6 overall, mixed recent results) while Chun-Chien Hou has very limited match volume and poor recent results (1-4), which supports a favorite market but not a gap large enough to justify backing Zhao at current odds. The market-implied probability for Zhao at 1.275 is about 78.4%; our estimated true probability is lower at 75.0%, leaving a negative expected return at the available price. Given the small sample sizes, lack of H2H data, and mixed recent form, we prefer to pass unless the price moves to at least 1.333 or higher.

Key factors

• • Zhao has more match experience (11 matches) and exposure on hard courts
• • Hou has very limited match volume and poor recent results (1-4), reducing his upside
• • Market odds (1.275) imply a higher win probability than our estimate, removing value