Highlights

• • BOOM implied breakeven probability = 14.04%; our estimate = 12.0%
• • Liquid market price (~92.35%) exceeds our conservative estimate (~88%), removing value

Pros

• + Conservative, downside-aware probability assumptions
• + Clear numeric breakeven thresholds provided for quick decision-making

Cons

• - No recent web-sourced match data was available to refine estimates
• - If additional team/roster/injury intel exists, probabilities could change materially

Details

We compare the quoted prices to conservative true-win estimates. The market prices imply Liquid ~92.35% (1/1.083) and BOOM ~14.04% (1/7.12) before accounting for overround. Our conservative assessment (based on no additional intel) assigns BOOM roughly a 12.0% chance and Liquid the complement (~88.0%). At BOOM p=0.12, the fair decimal price would be 8.333; the available price 7.12 produces EV = 0.12*7.12 - 1 = -0.146 (negative). At Liquid p~0.88 the breakeven price is 1.136; the market price 1.083 implies the market is pricing Liquid higher than our estimate, so that side also offers no positive EV. Because neither side shows positive expected value against our conservative probabilities, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market heavily favors Liquid (very short price, large implied probability)
• • We use conservative probabilities in absence of further intel (BOOM ≈12%)
• • Neither side clears the minimum edge threshold at available odds