Highlights

• • Underdog Tidebound estimated win probability 42%
• • Current away price (2.64) yields positive EV (~0.109)

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at current market price based on our conservative estimate
• + Avoids overbetting on the heavy favorite priced at 1.488

Cons

• - Estimate has elevated uncertainty because no matchup, roster, or form data is available
• - Edge is moderate; variance in best-of formats can swing short-term results

Details

We compare the bookmaker-implied probabilities to a conservative, research-free estimate. The market prices Liquid at 1.488 (implied win probability ~67.2%) and Tidebound at 2.64 (implied ~37.9%). Given no external data, we adopt a conservative estimate that Liquid is the stronger side but not as heavy a favorite as the market implies — we estimate Tidebound's true win probability at 42.0%. At the quoted away price (2.64) this produces positive expected value (EV = 0.42 * 2.64 - 1 = +0.1088, ~10.9% ROI). The favorite line looks over-priced on the bookmaker side after accounting for uncertainty and typical tournament variance; the underdog price offers value relative to our conservative probability. We note higher model uncertainty due to lack of form, roster, and patch information, so we keep probability estimates conservative and avoid overstating edge.

Key factors

• • Bookmaker-implied probabilities vs our conservative win estimate
• • High uncertainty due to no available form/roster/patch data
• • Tournament variance in Dota 2 increases value of underdog edges