Highlights

• • Both players: 10-21 record and similar recent results
• • Current favorite price (1.205) implies ~83% win chance, which is unsupported by supplied data

Pros

• + Weaker-case for a small home-edge based on listing as home
• + Clear, conservative assessment avoids overstating edges given limited data

Cons

• - Available data does not show an advantage large enough to justify 1.205
• - No head-to-head, ranking, or injury info in the supplied research to refine probability

Details

We compared the quoted market price (Lisa Pigato 1.205) to an evidence-based win probability derived from the available player profiles. The research shows both players have effectively identical career records (10-21) and similar recent form (multiple recent losses on hard/court; both have played clay and hard), with no H2H, injury, or surface advantage information to justify a very large gap. Given only the supplied data, we assign a modest edge to the home-listed player (Lisa Pigato) but not anything close to the market-implied probability of ~83% (1/1.205). Using an estimated true win probability of 58% for Pigato, the break-even decimal odds would be ~1.724; at the current market odds of 1.205 the bet would be negative EV. Therefore we do not recommend backing either player at the quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical documented records (10-21) in the provided profiles
• • Recent form for both listed players is poor with multiple recent losses
• • Market price (1.205) implies an implausibly high win probability given supplied data