Highlights

• • Implied probability at 1.18 is ~84.7% versus our estimated 52%
• • Fair decimal odds based on our estimate are ~1.923 — well above current market price

Pros

• + If market information not included here (injury for the away player, travel, etc.) exists, the short price could reflect real edge
• + Low variance play if a bettor prefers backing a heavy market favorite for certainty rather than value

Cons

• - Supplied data shows no evidence of an 85% probability for the favorite
• - Huge negative expected value at current odds (EV ≈ -0.386 per unit staked)

Details

We see the market pricing Lisa Pigato at 1.18 (implied ~84.7%), which implies an overwhelming superiority. The available performance data, however, shows both players with nearly identical career spans, identical 10-21 records, similar surface experience (clay and hard), and recent poor form—there is no objective basis in the supplied data to support an ~85% win probability for Pigato. Our estimated true win probability for Pigato is 52%, which corresponds to fair odds of about 1.923. At the current market price (1.18) the bet has strongly negative expected value, so we do not recommend taking the favorite.

Key factors

• • Both players show near-identical career records (10-21) and recent results in the provided data
• • No clear surface or form advantage is evident in the supplied research
• • Market price (1.18) implies an implausibly high win probability given the available information