Highlights

• • Estimated away win probability 48% → needs ≥2.083 to be +EV
• • Current best price (away 2.02) yields a small negative EV (~-0.03)

Pros

• + Market offers a small underdog price on away (2.02) that is near breakeven
• + Clear parity in profiles reduces risk of unnoticed large mismatch

Cons

• - Current odds do not exceed our required thresholds for value
• - Limited distinguishing data (no H2H, surface specifics, or injury notes) increases uncertainty

Details

We see nearly identical career records and recent form for both players with no clear performance edge and no injury or H2H information favoring either side. The market prices imply a slight home favorite (1.77 / 56.5% raw), but after accounting for the book's margin the normalized book probability for the home side is only ~53-54%. Given parity in profiles we estimate the away win probability at 0.48 (home ~0.52). At that true probability the away side would need odds >= 2.083 to present positive EV; the current away price of 2.02 is short of that and yields a small negative EV (-0.03). The home price (1.77) is substantially shorter than our fair-home-implied required odds (~1.923–1.961 depending on model), so it also offers negative EV. Because neither side offers positive expected value at the available prices we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records and recent form in the provided data
• • No injury, surface advantage, or H2H information to justify diverging from model parity
• • Market prices are slightly favoring the home player; current away odds (2.02) are below our break-even threshold (2.083)