Lisa Pigato vs Lia Karatancheva

Highlights

• • Market implies ~68% for Pigato (1.467) but we estimate ~55%.
• • At our estimate the favorite produces a negative EV (-0.193 per unit staked).

Pros

• + Conservative probability reflects similar career records and recent form parity
• + Clear numeric threshold (min odds 1.818) to look for before taking the favorite

Cons

• - Limited data on surface, head-to-head, or injuries reduces confidence
• - Small differences in the probability estimate could flip EV; matchup is inherently volatile

Details

We find no value on the current moneyline. The market prices Lisa Pigato at 1.467 (implied win probability ~68.2%), but the available performance data show both players with nearly identical career records (10-21) and similarly poor recent form, so we estimate a much closer true probability for Pigato. Using a conservative true probability of 55.0% for the home player (reflecting a small edge but not the large market gap) yields a required fair decimal price of 1.818; the current 1.467 is too short. Calculation: implied market probability (home) = 1/1.467 = 0.682; our estimate = 0.55; EV at current price = 0.55*1.467 - 1 = -0.193. Because EV is negative, we do not recommend betting either side at the quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical overall records (10-21) and have similar recent results — no clear form edge
• • Market heavily favors the home player (implied ~68%), which is inconsistent with available performance data
• • No clear surface or injury information in the provided data to justify the market gap