Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for home is ~45.5% at 2.20
• • Our estimated true probability is 50%, yielding ~+10% EV

Pros

• + Clear numeric edge between market-implied probability and our estimate
• + Simple, data-driven case based on parity between players

Cons

• - Research is sparse and shows no differentiating factors — elevates uncertainty
• - Qualifying matches and small-sample records increase variance and volatility

Details

We find value on the home player (Lisa Zaar) because the available public data shows both players with essentially identical career records and recent form, providing no clear performance edge for the away player despite the market favoring her. The market-implied probability for the home player at decimal odds 2.20 is 45.45%. Given the symmetry in the provided profiles (same win-loss, similar surfaces played and matching recent-match summaries), we estimate the true win probability for the home player at about 50.0%, which implies fair odds of 2.00. At the quoted price of 2.20 this yields positive expected value (EV = 0.10, or +10% ROI). The recommendation is therefore to back the home player only because the current price offers a clear margin above our estimated fair value; if more distinguishing information (injuries, H2H, surface advantage) emerges, we would re-evaluate.

Key factors

• • Both players show effectively identical career records and recent form in the provided data
• • Market prices favor the away player (implied underweighting of the home player)
• • No injury, H2H or surface advantage information in the research to justify the market skew