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Liverpool LFC vs Chelsea FC play on 2025-12-21 13:00 in the FA League Cup Women (football). Compare football odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: 225.5%. Suggested side: Chelsea FC. Moneyline — Home: 9.5 (10.5%), Away: 5.25 (19.0%).
Global 11v11 sport with two 45-minute halves; major leagues worldwide.
Our lean: Chelsea FC. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.
Home: 9.5, Away: 5.25. Odds may update frequently.
Best bet: Chelsea FC moneyline given current prices.
We see a large disconnect between the market price and what the form and H2H research imply. The quoted moneyline prices (Home 9.80 -> implied 10.2%; Away 5.25 -> implied 19.0%) understate Chelsea's standing: research shows Chelsea have dominated the H2H (around 20 wins in the last 30 meetings) and enter this League Cup tie as the stronger side with better recent results and squad depth. Even allowing for potential cup rotation, we estimate Chelsea's true win probability at 62.0% based on H2H history, season form, and squad strength. At that probability the minimum fair decimal odds would be 1.613, so the market price of 5.25 represents substantial positive expected value. Calculation: EV = p * odds - 1 = 0.62 * 5.25 - 1 = 2.255 (225.5% ROI on a 1-unit stake). We acknowledge rotation and single-match variance as downside risks that temper confidence, but the gap between our estimated probability and the current price is large enough to justify recommending Chelsea (away).