Highlights

• • Market implies only ~20.8% for Miyamoto while our estimate is ~45%
• • Min fair odds to break even on our estimate are ~2.22 — current 4.8 is far superior

Pros

• + Large discrepancy between implied and estimated true probability
• + Both players' records and recent performances indicate a much closer contest than the market prices

Cons

• - Research dataset is limited and identical for both players, increasing model uncertainty
• - Possible unreported local factors or late scratches/injuries could invalidate the edge

Details

We find clear value on Ayumi Miyamoto at 4.8. The published research shows both players with effectively identical records (10-21) and similar recent form on the same surfaces, which indicates a near-even matchup rather than the overwhelming favorite implied by the market. Allowing for a modest home advantage, we estimate Miyamoto's true win probability around 45%. The market-implied probability at 4.8 is only 20.8%, so the price appears significantly misaligned with the on-paper assessment. Even with conservative assumptions about home edge and uncertainty in the limited data, the away price offers a large positive expected value compared with the quoted market odds.

Key factors

• • Both players have identical documented records (10-21) and similar recent results
• • Match played on a surface both players regularly compete on (no clear surface edge)
• • Market heavily favors the home player despite on-paper parity, creating value on the underdog