Lizette Cabrera vs Erika Sema

Highlights

• • Implied market probability for Cabrera: 92.6% (1.081)
• • Our estimated true probability for Cabrera: 60% (fair odds ~1.667)

Pros

• + If one believes the market is correct and Cabrera is near-certain to win, the outcome is likely predictable
• + Provided price is very short, risk of loss per unit stake is limited in absolute terms

Cons

• - Current odds (1.081) imply a probability far above what the player performance data supports
• - Research shows both players with similar records and poor recent form — no evidence of a >90% edge

Details

We see the market has Lizette Cabrera as an extremely short favorite at 1.081 (implied 92.6%). The research provided shows both players with nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar recent poor form on comparable surfaces; there is no injury, H2H, or clear surface advantage presented that would justify the market assigning Cabrera a >90% chance. We estimate Cabrera's true win probability around 60% based on parity in records and form, which corresponds to fair decimal odds ~1.667. At the current price of 1.081 the bet is strongly negative EV (we would need substantially longer odds to consider wagering). Therefore we do not recommend taking the favorite at available prices.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records and recent form in the provided research
• • Market-implied probability for the favorite (92.6%) is far higher than what performance data supports
• • No injury, H2H, or surface advantage information in the research to justify the extreme market price