Lizette Cabrera vs Katie Swan
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Given nearly identical profiles and no clear edge, we estimate a 50% chance for Cabrera; the market price of 2.05 marginally exceeds our fair price (2.00), producing a small positive EV of ~2.5%.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability for Cabrera (2.05) is ~48.8%, below our 50% estimate.
- • Minimum fair decimal odds for a 50% true probability is 2.00; current 2.05 gives slight value.
Pros
- + Price (2.05) is above our fair threshold (2.00) based on conservative 50/50 estimate.
- + Research shows no strong form advantage for the opponent, supporting the 50% assumption.
Cons
- - Edge is very small (2.5% ROI) and vulnerable to unlisted factors (injury, head-to-head, late withdrawals).
- - Both players have poor recent records (10-21), increasing match volatility and variance.
Details
We see both players with near-identical records and recent results in the provided profiles (both 10-21 with similar recent losses on hard courts), so there is no clear on-paper edge for Katie Swan. The market currently prices Swan as the favorite (implied ~58.8%) and Cabrera at decimal 2.05 (implied ~48.8%). Given the lack of differentiation in the research, we conservatively estimate true win probability for Cabrera at 50.0%. That implies a minimum fair price of 2.00 (1 / 0.50). The offered 2.05 is slightly superior to that threshold, producing a small positive expected value: EV = 0.50 * 2.05 - 1 = +0.025 (2.5% ROI). The edge is small and sensitive to any additional information (injury, H2H, match conditions) not present in the research, so this is a marginal value play rather than a strong recommendation.
Key factors
- • Both players show identical season records and similar recent form in the provided data (10-21).
- • Match surface is hard; both have recent matches on hard with no clear advantage.
- • Market favors the away player (Swan) more than the limited research justifies, creating a small value on Cabrera at 2.05.