Lizette Cabrera vs Elyse Tse

Highlights

• • Market-implied probabilities: Home ~90.1%, Away ~16.4% — disparity looks unjustified given provided data
• • At our 25% estimate, the away price 6.10 yields EV = +0.525 (52.5% ROI)

Pros

• + Large margin between our fair price (4.00) and market price (6.10)
• + Recommendation is conservative (25% estimate) given limited distinguishing data, yet still shows value

Cons

• - Research is sparse and largely symmetrical; our probability estimate has uncertainty
• - Underdog outcomes are inherently higher variance — result risk remains high despite positive EV

Details

We find clear value on Elyse Tse (away). The market prices Lizette Cabrera at 1.11 (implied ~90.1%) and Elyse Tse at 6.10 (implied ~16.4%). The research provided shows virtually identical profiles and records for both players (career span, surfaces, and a 10-21 W-L), with recent form showing losses for each and no injury or H2H data to strongly separate them. Given the lack of evidence that Cabrera deserves a ~90% chance and the symmetric data, a conservative true win probability for Tse of 25% is reasonable (we give the favorite some edge for home/seed reasons but not near market levels). At p=0.25 the fair decimal price is 4.00; the available 6.10 is well above that, producing positive expected value. Calculation: EV = 0.25 * 6.10 - 1 = 0.525 (52.5% ROI on a 1-unit stake). By contrast, the home price of 1.11 implies an extremely overstated probability that we do not support.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records and recent form in the provided data (10-21), so intrinsic skill separation is unclear
• • Market heavily favors the home player (1.11 = ~90% implied); that level of favoritism is not supported by the available research
• • No injuries or decisive surface advantage reported in the research, so we use a conservative away probability estimate and still find strong value