Highlights

• • Market-implied upset chance (7.69%) is marginally above our estimate (7.5%).
• • Betting Harris at 1.01 would require >99% certainty to be profitable, which we do not assign.

Pros

• + Clear qualitative edge to Harris in experience and recent top-level match exposure
• + Underdog price is close to fair by our estimate, minimizing exploitable value for bettors

Cons

• - Insufficient upside in current prices to justify a value bet
• - Limited data on direct matchup and small sample size for Liu increases variance

Details

We estimate Lloyd Harris is the clear favorite based on higher-level experience, recent ATP-level play and a far stronger career profile versus Hanyi Liu's Challenger-level results and 5-16 record. The market prices Harris at 1.01 (implied ~99.0%) and Liu at 13.0 (implied ~7.69%). Our estimated true probability for Liu to upset is ~7.5% (Harris ~92.5%). At those beliefs the away price 13.0 yields negative expected value (EV = 0.075 * 13.0 - 1 = -0.025), and backing Harris at 1.01 would require >99.0% win probability to be +EV which we do not assign. Therefore no side shows value at the current posted lines.

Key factors

• • Harris has higher-level experience and recent ATP/Grand Slam-level matches
• • Liu has a poor overall record (5-16) and primarily Challenger/hard-court results
• • Market heavily favors Harris, leaving almost no margin for profitable backing of the favorite