Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Massard ~66.9%, our estimate ~60%
• • Neither player has demonstrated grass-court form; higher uncertainty

Pros

• + Massard's larger sample size and better win-loss record favor him
• + Faut's limited match history and hard-only play suggest lower adaptability to grass

Cons

• - Lack of grass-court data for both players increases matchup uncertainty
• - Massard's recent results include losses and do not clearly justify >66% true win probability

Details

We compared the market price (Loann Massard 1.495 implied ~66.9%) to our assessment of true win probability. Massard has a larger match sample (32-26) and experience on multiple surfaces, while Pierre Antoine Faut has a very small sample (4-4) and appears to have only hard-court experience. However, the match is on grass, and neither profile shows proven grass form — that increases uncertainty and reduces our confidence that Massard is as likely as the market implies. We estimate Massard's true win probability at ~60%, which yields a negative expected value at the available 1.495 price (EV = 0.60*1.495 - 1 = -0.103). The market is pricing Massard steeply; because our EV is negative, we do not recommend taking the favorite here. To consider a bet on Massard we'd need at least ~1.667 decimal (or better) given our probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Massard has substantially more match experience and a superior overall record
• • Neither player shows recorded grass-court results — surface uncertainty raises variance
• • Faut's small sample and hard-only history make projection on grass unreliable