Highlights

• • Loes strong experience advantage and broader surface exposure
• • Current favorite odds require >83.3% win probability to be profitable

Pros

• + Loes' long career and higher win count imply a stable baseline performance
• + Johanna's limited match sample increases uncertainty around her capacity to beat a seasoned opponent

Cons

• - Recent match listings show both players losing recently — form is not strongly one-sided
• - Loes' career win rate, while higher, does not justify the >83% implied market probability

Details

We estimate Loes Ebeling Koning is the clear favorite based on a much larger base of professional matches (559-507 career) versus Johanna Silva's limited sample (10-21). Experience, broader surface exposure, and a superior career win rate point to a materially higher win probability for Loes than Silva. However, the market price for Loes (1.20) implies a required probability of 83.33% to be +EV. Based on available form data (recent losses for both, but Loes steadier over a long career) we assign a realistic win probability for Loes around 78.0%, which produces negative expected value at 1.20 (EV = 0.78*1.20 - 1 = -0.064). With that gap between our estimated true probability and the market-implied probability, there is no value on either side at current odds; a profitable bet would require Loes priced at ~1.282 or longer (or Silva much longer than 4.05 if we believed an improbably high upset probability).

Key factors

• • Large experience gap: Loes has 1066 matches vs Silva's 31
• • Career win rates favor Loes (≈52.4% vs ≈32.3%), suggesting consistent edge
• • Market prices require Loes >83.3% equity to be +EV; our estimate is ~78%