Highlights

• • Market implied away probability ~24.7%; we estimate ~34%
• • Positive EV = 0.377 (34% * 4.05 - 1)

Pros

• + Strong value because market significantly undervalues the away player
• + Both players' profiles and recent form do not justify a large favorite

Cons

• - Limited specific match-level data (no H2H, no clear surface advantage) increases uncertainty
• - If there is an unreported injury or local factor favoring the home player, value would evaporate

Details

The market prices Amy Sucha at 4.05 (implied probability ~24.7%) while Loes Ebeling Koning is a heavy 1.214 favorite (implied ~82.4%). The available player data shows nearly identical career profiles and win-loss totals, with both players having experience across all surfaces and similarly poor recent results — no clear objective basis for an 82% win probability for the home player. Given parity in career record and neutral surface exposure, we assess the away player’s true chance materially higher than the market implies. Using a conservative estimated true probability of 34% for the away player versus the market’s ~24.7% produces positive expected value at the listed 4.05 price. We therefore recommend backing the away player where the quoted price is available.

Key factors

• • Nearly identical career win-loss records and multi-surface experience — little objective separation
• • Recent form shows both players with recent losses; no clear momentum advantage
• • Market heavily favors home (1.214) creating a likely mispricing for the underdog