Highlights

• • Market: Home 1.25 (80% implied), Away 3.6 (27.78% implied)
• • Our best estimate for away is ~22% → current price produces negative EV (-0.208)

Pros

• + Home player's poor recent results suggest the market favorite may be overstated
• + Away price of 3.6 would be attractive if true win chance exceeded ~27.8%

Cons

• - No scouting or form information for the away player increases model uncertainty
• - Estimated away probability (22%) is below market-implied 27.78%, so price is not valuable

Details

We compare market prices (Home 1.25 => implied ~80.0%, Away 3.6 => implied ~27.78%, market overround ~7.78%) to our estimated true probability for the upset (Away). The only concrete data available is the home player Loic Namigandet Tenguere: a short pro span, 7-13 career record (~35% raw win rate) and poor recent form (losing stretch on hard courts). That background argues the market favorite (Loic) may be overrated by bookmakers, but we have no data on the opponent (Tsiry Rabetrano), so uncertainty is high. Given Loic's weak form we estimate the away player’s true chance at ~22.0%, which is below the market-implied 27.78% at 3.6. Using the available current price (3.6) yields negative expected value (EV = 0.22*3.6 - 1 = -0.208). Because our estimated true probability does not exceed the market-implied probability, there is no profitable value bet here and we recommend no side.

Key factors

• • Home player (Loic) limited sample: 7-13 career record and poor recent form on hard courts
• • Market implies heavy favoritism to home (80% implied) despite home player's losing trend
• • No information available on the away player (Tsiry Rabetrano) increases uncertainty
• • Bookmaker overround (~7.8%) reduces value for marginal edges