Loic Namigandet Tenguere vs Martin Sabas

Highlights

• • Market implies Martin ~61.8% while we estimate ~55%
• • At current odds the expected ROI is approximately -11% (no value)

Pros

• + Martin has a slightly better win rate in limited data
• + Market clearly favors one player so any genuine edge would be easy to spot

Cons

• - Small sample sizes and sparse recent results make probability estimates noisy
• - Both players have poor recent form, increasing upset risk

Details

We believe the market (Martin at 1.617 implied ~61.8%) overstates the favorite. Martin has a marginally better career win rate in the limited sample (4-7) versus Loic (7-13), but both players show weak recent form and small sample sizes make estimates noisy. Loic has more matches on hard courts and slightly more recent match activity, which narrows the gap. We estimate Martin's true win probability at ~55% (decimal 1.818 fair price); at the quoted 1.617 the expected ROI is negative (~-0.111), so there is no profitable value at current prices and we therefore recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Both players have small professional samples and poor recent form, increasing uncertainty
• • Loic has more hard-court activity recently which reduces the gap versus Martin
• • Market strongly favors Martin (implied ~61.8%) while our fair estimate is ~55%