Highlights

• • Market implies home win ~62% but research suggests Loic is much weaker (~35–40% historical win rate).
• • At our 60% estimate for the away player, current odds 2.20 deliver ~0.32 EV (32% ROI).

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at current widely-available price (2.20) assuming conservative probability estimates.
• + Loic's poor recent results and small sample size create reasonable doubt in his market favoritism.

Cons

• - Research does not include any information on Mateo Bivol (opponent), increasing uncertainty and model risk.
• - Small sample sizes and limited data on both players (only one player's profile provided) raise variance and risk of model misspecification.

Details

We compare the market-implied probabilities to what the limited research suggests. The market prices the home player, Loic Namigandet Tenguere, at 1.61 (implied ~62.1%). However, the only provided player data shows a short career (20 matches) and a 7-13 record (~35% career win rate) with notably poor recent form on hard courts. Given Loic's demonstrated inconsistency and recent losses, we believe the market is overestimating his win probability. Conservatively estimating Loic's true win probability around 40% (implying the opponent at ~60%), the away price of 2.20 offers positive expected value: EV = 0.60 * 2.20 - 1 = 0.32 (32% ROI). The min required decimal odds for that estimated probability is 1.667, well below the current 2.20. We note high uncertainty because only Loic's limited data is available and the opponent's form/H2H are not provided, so our estimate is conservative but indicates clear value on the away side at the current price.

Key factors

• • Loic Namigandet Tenguere has a short career (20 matches) and a 7-13 record (~35% career win rate)
• • Recent form for Loic is poor on hard courts (recent losses in last matches listed)
• • Market-implied probability (home 1.61 → ~62%) appears to overvalue Loic compared with his documented form