Lois Boisson vs Yeon Woo Ku

Highlights

• • Bookmaker implies ~30% for away; our read is ~45% — substantial pricing gap
• • No clear supporting evidence for the heavy home favoritism in the provided research

Pros

• + Strong positive EV at current market price (approx +48.5% ROI on a unit stake)
• + Decision grounded on symmetry in records/form from the provided research

Cons

• - Player data is limited and nearly identical, introducing uncertainty in the exact probability estimate
• - Market may reflect non-public factors (recent training, local conditions) not present in the research

Details

We find clear value on the away moneyline. The public research shows both players with nearly identical records, surfaces played and recent form, suggesting the true win probability is close to even rather than the heavy home bias implied by the current prices. The bookmaker's decimal prices (Home 1.33 -> implied 75.2%, Away 3.30 -> implied 30.3%) appear skewed toward the home despite no evidence of a meaningful performance gap or injury advantage for the favorite. Conservatively estimating Yeon Woo Ku's true win probability at 45% (still giving Lois Boisson a slight edge), the away line of 3.30 yields positive expected value (EV = 0.45 * 3.30 - 1 = +0.485). Therefore we recommend backing the away player because the current market price more than compensates for the estimated likelihood of an away win.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records and recent form in the provided data
• • Home favorite price (1.33) implies an outsized win probability not supported by available performance data
• • No reported injuries, H2H or surface advantage in the research to justify the large favorite price