Lois Boisson vs Yeonwoo Ku
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend a value bet on the away player (Yeonwoo Ku) because the market's heavy favoritism toward Lois Boisson appears overstated relative to Boisson's 10-21 career record; at 3.4 the away side offers significant edge versus our 58% win estimate.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability for Boisson (~74.7%) seems inconsistent with her 32% career win rate
- • At 3.4 the away selection yields a very strong calculated EV (~97.2% ROI by our estimate)
Pros
- + Large edge between our probability estimate and the market price
- + Simple, data-driven rationale grounded in Boisson's documented win-loss record
Cons
- - We have limited information on Yeonwoo Ku (no profile provided), so our estimate relies heavily on Boisson's poor record
- - High upside EV comes with high variance and model uncertainty given sparse matchup context
Details
We find value on the away player (Yeonwoo Ku) because the market is pricing Lois Boisson at a 74.7% win chance (decimal 1.338), which looks implausibly high given Boisson's documented career record of 10-21 (≈32% win rate) and weak recent results. With only Boisson's profile available, the objective baseline is her historical win rate (≈32%), so the market favorite pricing appears overstated. Conservatively adjusting for unknown matchup context but keeping the historical evidence central, we estimate Ku's true win probability at 58%. At the available away moneyline of 3.4 this implies a large positive expectation (EV = 0.58*3.4 - 1 = 0.972). Minimum fair decimal odds to justify a Ku bet at our estimate is 1.724 (1/0.58), well below the quoted 3.4, so the current market price contains significant value versus our estimate.
Key factors
- • Lois Boisson career win-rate 10-21 (≈32%) over 31 matches
- • Recent form shown in her last matches is weak (multiple losses)
- • Market implies Boisson ~75% favorite which conflicts with her documented win rate