Lois Newberry vs Alicia Dudeney

Highlights

• • Market odds appear mispriced relative to available form data
• • Estimated probability (14%) converts to a required minimum price of 7.143 — current 11.0 is well above that

Pros

• + Significant positive expected value at current price
• + Both players' profiles suggest a competitive matchup, supporting a higher true chance than the market implies

Cons

• - Large market skew may reflect non-public information (withdrawal/retirement) not present in the research
• - Upset risk is high; even with positive EV, actual probability of win is low (14%) so variance is large

Details

We find clear value on Lois Newberry at 11.0 because the available performance data shows near-identical career records and recent form for both players (each 10-21, similar recent results), which does not justify the market pricing that heavily favors Alicia Dudeney at 1.04 (implied home probability ~9.1%). With no injury or H2H information in the research and both players having comparable surface history, a realistic true chance for Newberry to win is materially higher than 9.1%. Using a conservative true probability of 14.0% for Newberry vs the market-implied 9.1% gives positive expected value: EV = 0.14 * 11.0 - 1 = +0.54 (54% ROI on a 1-unit stake). We recommend backing the home underdog only because the current decimal price (11.0) offers positive EV; however, the market distortion suggests checking match status (withdrawal/retirement) before placing a bet.

Key factors

• • Both players have nearly identical career records (10-21) and recent match lines, implying parity
• • Market prices heavily favor the away player at 1.04; implied underdog chance (~9.1%) looks too low given the data
• • No injuries, H2H or surface advantage reported in the research to justify the extreme market skew