Highlights

• • Bookmaker price for Newberry (1.80) implies a much higher win probability than her recent form supports
• • Required odds for positive EV on Newberry would be ~3.03 or higher

Pros

• + Home designation could provide a small, unspecified edge
• + Newberry has experience on both clay and hard courts

Cons

• - Overall career record and recent results indicate low win probability
• - Current market odds favor Newberry but without evidence to justify that premium

Details

We estimate Lois Newberry's chance to win at ~33% based on a 10-21 career record, weak recent form with consecutive losses, and limited positive indicators on her preferred surfaces. The market prices Newberry at 1.80 (implied 55.6%), which is substantially higher than our estimate and produces a negative expected value. With no information provided about Sofia Alekseeva to justify adjusting probabilities toward Newberry, there is no value on either side at the quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Lois Newberry career win rate is poor (10-21, ~32%)
• • Recent form shows consecutive losses and downward trend
• • Market implies ~55.6% for Newberry (1.80), which exceeds our assessed probability