Lorenzo Balducci vs Aidan Mchugh
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We do not recommend a bet: the favorite is overpriced relative to our estimate and the underdog lacks supporting data to claim sufficient probability to justify the price.
Highlights
- • Aidan is a clear market favorite but implied probability (87.7%) far exceeds his documented career win rate and surface history.
- • Insufficient information on Lorenzo and the match surface prevents confidently assigning him enough chance to justify the 5.20 price.
Pros
- + Avoids taking a clear negative EV on the heavy favorite at 1.14.
- + Reflects uncertainty due to missing opponent and surface information — prudent stance.
Cons
- - If Balducci is a clay specialist or Mchugh is injured/fatigued (not documented), we could be missing a strong value opportunity on the underdog.
- - Market can be inefficient in smaller events; lack of data increases variance of our estimate.
Details
The market heavily prices Aidan Mchugh as a near-lock at 1.14 (implied win probability ~87.7%). The only concrete performance data in the research is Mchugh's 32-20 career record (≈61.5% overall) and his activity on hard and grass surfaces; there is no data provided for Lorenzo Balducci or the event surface. Given Mchugh's documented win rate and surface history, we estimate his true win probability substantially below the market-implied 87.7% (we estimate ~70%). At that estimate the favorite's price of 1.14 yields a negative expected value (EV = 0.70*1.14 - 1 = -0.202). The underdog Lorenzo is offered at 5.20 (implied ~19.2%), and while that price superficially looks enticing, we lack any data on Balducci or confirmation of a surface that would materially favor him; we cannot confidently assign him a >19.2% true win probability with the available information. Therefore no side shows positive value at the widely available current prices.
Key factors
- • Aidan Mchugh career record 32-20 (≈61.5% overall)
- • Mchugh's recorded surfaces are Hard and Grass only (no clay data provided)
- • Market prices Aidan at 1.14 (implied 87.7%) while information does not support that level of certainty
- • No data provided on Lorenzo Balducci or match surface — major uncertainty
- • Value exists only if underdog true probability >19.23%, which we cannot justify with the given research