Highlights

• • Market-implied probability ~84.3%; our fair estimate ~85.0%
• • Min fair odds to break even: 1.176 — current 1.185 offers slight value

Pros

• + Clear experience and form advantage for Ribecai
• + Available price slightly above our calculated fair odds

Cons

• - Very small edge; gains are marginal and vulnerable to variance
• - No direct grass performance data for either player in the provided research

Details

We assess Michele Ribecai as the clear favorite based on a substantially larger sample size and superior career record (31-23) versus Lorenzo Beraldo's limited 2-7 resume. Both players' recent results in the research are on clay and there is no explicit grass history, so we conservatively allow for surface uncertainty. The market price of 1.185 implies ~84.3% chance; we estimate Ribecai's true win probability at ~85.0% given experience, consistency and qualifier context, which produces a small positive edge versus the available price. Calculations: estimated p = 0.85 -> min fair decimal odds = 1.176. At the current decimal odds 1.185, EV = 0.85 * 1.185 - 1 = 0.00625 (≈0.63% ROI). The edge is small but positive; risk remains from limited grass data and small-sample volatility for Beraldo.

Key factors

• • Ribecai has far greater match experience and a significantly better win-loss record
• • Beraldo has very limited match history (9 matches) and poor form (2-7)
• • Surface is grass but available recent data for both is on clay, introducing uncertainty