Highlights

• • Market implies ~76% for Carboni vs our 62% estimate
• • Surface (grass) unknown for both — increases uncertainty and downside to backing the short favorite

Pros

• + Carboni has the stronger career record and larger sample of matches
• + Playing at home/qualifier may favor Carboni marginally

Cons

• - Both players lack documented grass-court history, making projection unreliable
• - Current price (1.316) offers negative expected value given our probability estimate

Details

The market heavily favors Lorenzo Carboni at decimal 1.316 (implied ~76%). Based on career win-rates (Carboni 36-25 vs Miletich 20-23), Carboni is the stronger player, but both have little-to-no documented grass experience and recent form shows losses; this reduces our confidence edge. We estimate Carboni's true win probability at 62%, which is materially lower than the market-implied 76%, producing a negative expected value at the current price. To achieve positive EV we'd need a price of at least 1.613 on Carboni. Given the uncertainty from surface inexperience and mixed recent form, the favorite is overpriced and we therefore recommend no bet at the posted 1.316.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Carboni (1/1.316 ≈ 76%) exceeds our estimated win chance
• • Carboni has a better overall record (36-25) than Miletich (20-23), but both lack grass experience
• • Recent results for both players show losses and limited positive form, increasing outcome variance