Highlights

• • Market-implied probability 91.2% vs our 95% estimate — value present
• • Clear experience and form gap in favor of the away player on clay

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely available price
• + Strong experience/sample-size advantage for the away player

Cons

• - Low payout due to heavy favoritism; variance can still produce upsets
• - Small career sample for the home player — unpredictable short-term variance

Details

We recommend backing the away player (Juan Cruz Martin Manzano). The market price (1.096 decimal) implies an approximate win probability of 91.2%, while our conservative estimated true probability is 95%. Juan has a substantially larger sample (37 matches, 21-16) and predominantly clay experience, whereas Lorenzo Comino has a very small sample (7 matches, 2-5) with weaker recent results. There are no injury flags in the provided research. Using our estimate the bet shows positive expected value: EV = 0.95 * 1.096 - 1 = +0.041 (≈4.1% ROI). Because the current market price understates Juan's likelihood relative to his experience and form on clay, we identify value on the away side at the supplied price.

Key factors

• • Experience and sample size advantage for Juan (37 matches vs 7)
• • Surface alignment: both players have clay experience; Juan’s record indicates stronger clay performance
• • Recent form: Juan shows more wins and matches at higher-level M25 events; Lorenzo has poor recent results