Highlights

• • Home at 1.89 vs implied ~53% market probability
• • We estimate home true probability at 58%, producing ~9.6% ROI per unit

Pros

• + Current market odds are close, leaving room for a correction in favor of the experienced/unknown home player
• + Away player has no wins and a 0-1 hard-court record, a clear negative factor for him

Cons

• - Very limited data on both players (especially the home player) makes our probability estimate noisy
• - Small edge — positive EV is modest and could be erased by variance or undisclosed factors (injury, walkover, etc.)

Details

We find value on the home side. The market prices are very close (Home 1.89 vs Away 1.83) despite the away player, Luka Bojicic Ono, having only a single recorded professional match (0-1) and no recorded wins on hard courts. Given Luka's extreme lack of match experience and a documented loss on hard, we assign the home player a materially higher true win probability than the market-implied ~53%. Using a conservative true probability of 58% for the home player versus the current decimal 1.89, the expected value is positive (EV = 0.58*1.89 - 1 = +0.096). The market appears to underprice the home-side edge when accounting for Luka's tiny sample and poor hard-court record, creating a small value opportunity at the quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Luka Bojicic Ono has only one recorded pro match (0-1) and lost on hard
• • Market prices are nearly even, leaving room for correction if one player is markedly more experienced
• • High uncertainty from tiny sample sizes increases variance but creates potential mispricing